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The lifetime risk of dementia after age 55 years is approximately 42 percent, the authors estimate.
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Increasing Risk of Dementia in the US, Researchers Warn

Study suggests the number of US adults who will probably develop dementia each year will increase from around 514,000 in 2020 to approximately 1 million in 2060

Springer Nature

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Published:Jan 14, 2025
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Around 1 million adults in the US are projected to develop dementia each year by 2060, compared with around 514,000 in 2020, suggests a new study published in the journal Nature Medicine

The lifetime risk of dementia after age 55 years is approximately 42 percent, the authors estimate. 

The findings highlight the need for public health strategies aimed at mitigating dementia risk and promoting healthy aging across diverse populations.

The lifetime risk of dementia is a critical public health metric that informs public awareness and policymaking. The Framingham Heart Study suggests that more than 14 percent of men and 23 percent of women in the US will probably develop dementia over their lifetime, however, this may be outdated, underestimate the true risk, and fail to capture racial disparities.

Dementia risk increases with age

Josef Coresh and colleagues analyzed more than three decades of health data records (1987–2020) from 15,043 Black and White people over 55 years of age (who were free of dementia at age 55 years) in the US. 

They found that after an average follow-up of 23 years, at age 55 years, the lifetime risk of dementia (up to age 95) among those in this sample was 42 percent, with an increase in diagnoses after 75 years of age. 

More specifically, dementia risk increased from about 0 percent to 4 percent from age 55 to 75 years, 4 percent to 20 percent from ages 75 and 85 years, and 20 percent to 42 percent from ages 85 to 95 years.

Women more at risk of dementia than men

The lifetime dementia risk was found to be higher among women (48 percent) than men (35 percent), higher among Black participants (44 percent) than White participants (41 percent), and higher among participants carrying two copies of the APOE ε4 gene (59 percent) than in those carrying one copy (48 percent) or no copies (39 percent). 

The authors project that the number of US adults who will probably develop dementia each year will increase from around 514,000 in 2020 to approximately 1 million in 2060.

More diverse population studies are needed

Coresh and colleagues suggest that different strategies may be needed for dementia prevention and care at different ages. They acknowledge that their findings may underestimate the true rates of dementia in these populations, and as this research included only Black and White Americans, more diverse populations studies are required.