Estimates of Global Breast Cancer Mortality and Incidence Are on the Rise
Future breast cancer incidence is projected to increase by 38 percent, and mortality by 68 percent, by 2050
At present, 1 in 20 women globally are diagnosed with breast cancer, and a projected 1 in 70 are likely to die from the disease in their lifetime, suggests research published in the journal Nature Medicine.
The authors argue that urgent action, particularly in countries with lower human development index (HDI) scores—a metric used to measure a country's overall quality of life by considering factors like life expectancy, education levels, and standard of living—as well as sustained investment and improvements in early diagnosis and treatment are needed to reduce growing inequities in breast cancer survival worldwide.
Breast cancer is the most diagnosed cancer and is the leading cause of cancer-related death in women.
In 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched the Global Breast Cancer Initiative (GBCI) to set a goal for countries to achieve an average annual reduction of 2.5 percent in breast cancer mortality.
However, current and projected estimates of the burden of breast cancer at global and regional levels are needed to monitor the success of efforts in breast cancer control.
Miranda Fidler-Benaoudia and colleagues analyzed breast cancer incidence and mortality rate data from 185 countries and found that there were 2.3 million new cases of and 670,000 deaths from breast cancer in 2022, globally.
However, this was unevenly distributed; in regions with lower HDI scores, people diagnosed with breast cancer disproportionately had the highest mortality rates.
For example, the lifetime risk of diagnosis was found to be highest in France (1 in 9) and Northern America (1 in 10), whereas the lifetime risk of dying from breast cancer was highest in Fiji (1 in 24) and Africa (1 in 47).
3.2 million new breast cancer cases are estimated for 2025
The authors also investigated mortality rates of breast cancer across 10 years in 46 countries.
They found that while mortality rates appear to be decreasing in 30 countries, only seven countries are meeting the WHO GBCI goal of reducing mortality by 2.5 percent per year: Malta, Denmark, Belgium, Switzerland, Lithuania, Netherlands, and Slovenia.
Given current trends, future breast cancer incidence is projected to increase by 38 percent, and mortality is projected to increase by 68 percent, by 2050, disproportionately impacting lower HDI countries. This corresponds to an estimated 3.2 million new cases and 1.1 million deaths in the year 2050.
The authors note that these estimates are limited by the quality and availability of data, particularly for countries with lower HDI scores that may have incomplete population coverage and established cancer registry systems. Future projection estimates were also limited to a subset of countries owing to the different datasets used.